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damodaran dark side valuation businesses 3ed 2018

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Textbook in PDF format The first edition of this book is showing its age and origins. The idea for this book was born at the end of 1999, toward the end of the Dot-com boom, and was triggered by two phenomena: the seeming inability of traditional valuation models to explain stratospheric stock prices for technology (especially new technology) companies, and the willingness of analysts to abandon traditional valuation metrics and go over to the “dark side” of valuation, where prices were justified using a mix of new metrics and storytelling. The publication of the first edition coincided with the bursting of that bubble. The second edition came ten years later, just after the 2008 crisis, precipitated by a housing bubble bursting and banks behaving badly. With that crisis came the realization that the dark side of valuation beckons any time analysts have trouble fitting companies into traditional models and metrics, and the book reflected that broader perspective. Rather than focus on just young, high-tech (internet) companies as I did in the first edition, I expanded the discussion to companies that are difficult to value across the spectrum, including distressed companies, commodity firms, and banks. In the eight years since the second edition was published, there are three macro phenomena that have confounded analysts trying to value companies. The first is that interest rates around the world, and especially so in developed markets, have not only hit historic lows but have become negative in some parts of the world. That has resulted in some analysts giving up on valuation, arguing that it does not work when rates are this low or negative. The second is that global market crises have become almost an annual occurrence, with each year bringing a fresh outbreak in a different part of the world, making risk premiums much more volatile in all markets. Finally, the journey to globalization, which a decade ago seemed unstoppable, has been not only slowed but perhaps even been pushed back in some parts of the world. In the third edition of this book, I look at how best to deal with low interest rates, volatile equity risk premiums, and political risk in valuation. The first part of this book reviews the basic tools you have available in valuation. In particular, it provides, in compressed format, a summary of conventional discounted cash flow models, probabilistic models (simulations, decision trees, and so forth), relative valuation models, and real options. Much of what is included in this section has already been said in my other books on valuation. As you read through this book, you will notice examples that are set back in time, valuations of companies in 2009, 2013 and 2016, for instance. I have left the descriptions in real time, because I think it makes them more realistic. Thus, if my valuations in 2009 are tinged with fear about a macroeconomic collapse, they reflect my feelings then, right after the 2008 crisis. In summary, I hope to make the third edition of The Dark Side of Valuation a book for today’s markets, where investors have to be willing to deal with uncertainty head on rather than hiding from it, where having too much data is as much of a concern as having too little, and where models sometimes have more complexity and power than their users can handle

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damodaran dark side valuation businesses 3ed 2018