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sharov v probabilistic statistical methods risk assessment civil avi 2021

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Textbook in PDF format This book analyses the models for major risks related to flight safety in the aviation sector and presents risk estimation methods through examples of several known aviation enterprises. The book provides a comprehensive content for professionals engaged in the development of flight safety regulatory framework as well as in the design and operation of ground-based or on-board flight support radio electronic systems. The book is also useful for senior students and postgraduates in aviation specialties, especially those related to air traffic management. Contents 1 Methods of Safety Risk Management... 1 1.1 Methods Based on the Model of Aviation “Event Tree” Development... 1 1.1.1 Main Provisions. Methodology of Event Type List Forming... 1 1.1.2 “Tree” Formation and Principles of Basic Probabilities Evaluation... 4 1.1.3 Basic Probabilities Evaluation for the Group “Environment”... 11 1.1.4 Method of a Posteriori Probabilities Adjustment... 27 1.1.5 Implementation of the Method in the Automated System of Forecasting and Prevention of Aviation Accidents... 32 1.2 Method of Safety Risk Management Using Conditional Factors and Fuzzy Evaluations... 35 1.2.1 Formulation of the Problem and Approach to the Solution. Content and Structure of the Source Data... 35 1.2.2 Severity Factor and Method of Its Calculation... 38 1.2.3 Admissibility Factor and Method of Its Calculation... 42 1.2.4 Implementation of the Method in Automated Risk Management System... 55 1.3 Method of Safety Risk Management Based on the Three-Component Model... 59 1.3.1 Formulation of the Problem. Algorithm for Estimating the Deviation and Event Risk Coefficient (DERC)... 59 1.3.2 Hazard Risk Assessment Algorithm (HRA)... 65 References... 68 2 Aircraft Overrun Risk-Reducing Methods... 73 2.1 Description of Aircraft Runway Movement After Landing... 73 2.2 Analysis of the Problem of Information Supply on Runway Surface Conditions... 76 2.3 Methods of the Crew Situational Raise Awareness About Runway Conditions... 79 2.3.1 Institutional Arrangements and Improvement of Interpretation Methods for Descriptive Information... 79 2.3.2 Experimental Detection of Correlation Dependence Between Canadian and Russian Runway Friction Indices... 80 2.4 Overrun Risk Management Method Based on Statistical Modeling... 87 2.4.1 Development of a Mathematical Model for Aircraft Runway Movement and Its Implementation in the Program “Overrun Probability”... 87 2.4.2 Joint Application of the Program “Overrun Probability” and Multidimensional Statistical Methods of Data Analysis... 92 2.5 Overrun Prognostication... 99 2.5.1 Modification of “Overrun Probability” Program Mathematical Model for Prognostication Task... 99 2.5.2 Overrun Prognosticating Algorithm Development for Aborted Takeoff... 105 References... 111 3 Practices to Combat External Impact on the Aircraft Navigation Systems in Civil Aviation and Flight Regulatory Management... 113 3.1 Implementation of Methods for Struggle with Unauthorized Actions on Aircraft Navigation Systems... 113 3.1.1 Main Hardware Methods of Protection from Unauthorized Actions... 113 3.1.2 Principal Methods of Aircraft Navigation Systems Stability Enhancement Under Unauthorized Actions... 114 3.1.3 Application ofUnauthorized ActivitiesDetectionAids for Operation Stability Improvement of the Aircraft Navigation System... 120 3.2 Measurement ofWeather Radiosonde Altitude by the Method of Relative Navigation Sightings... 123 3.3 Method of Flight Regularity Management in Aviation Enterprise... 131 References... 144 Annex A: Operational Forecasting and Risk Assessment Upcoming Flight Program Aspfaa... 147 Annex B: Automated Risk Management System Arms... 153 Annex C: Application of the Safety Risk Management Method №. 3 in the Airlines... 161 Annex D: Preparing Data for Use in the “Overrun Prognosis” Program... 179 Annex E: Using the “Overrun Prognosis” Program as a Module Asfpaa... 211

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sharov v probabilistic statistical methods risk assessment civil avi 2021