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laplace p philosophical essay probabilities 1995

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Textbook in PDF format Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. The "Essai philosophique dur les probabilites" is his introduction for the second edition of this work. Here Laplace provided a popular exposition on his "Theorie". The "Essai", based on a lecture on probability given by Laplace in 1794, underwent sweeping changes, almost doubling in size, in the various editions published during Laplace's lifetime. Translations of various editions in different languages have apeared over the years. The only English translation of 1902 reads awkwardly today. This is a thorough and modern translation based on the recent re-issue, with its voluminous notes, of the fifth edition of 1826, with preface by Rene Thom and postscript by Bernard Bru. In the second part of the book, the reader is provided with an extensive commentary by the translator including valuable histographical and mathematical remarks and various proofs. Front Matter Front Matter On probability General principles of the probability calculus On expectation On analytical methods in the probability calculus On games of chance On unknown inequalities that may exist between supposedly equal chances On laws of probability resulting from the indefinite repetition of events Application of the probability calculus to natural philosophy Application of the probability calculus to the moral sciences On the means of the results of a large number of observations On the probability of testimony On elections and decisions of assemblies On the probability of judicial decisions On tables of mortality and the mean duration of life, marriages and associations in general On the benefits of institutions that depend on the probability of events On illusions in the estimation of probabilities On various approaches to certainty Historical note on the probability calculus Back Matter

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laplace p philosophical essay probabilities 1995

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