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heymann m cultures prediction climate science 2017

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Textbook in PDF format In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences. Preface About the authors Ralf Döscher Johann Feichter Gabriele Gramelsberger Hélène Guillemot Matthias Heymann Nils Randlev Hundebøl Matthijs Kouw Catharina Landström Martin Mahony Janet Martin-Nielsen Annika E. Nilsson Markus Quante Christoph Rosol Birgit Schneider Sverker Sörlin Nina Wormbs Introduction Changing prediction practices Cultures of prediction The authority of cultures of prediction Goal of the book References Key characteristics of cultures of prediction The social role of prediction The character and significance of computational practices The domestication of uncertainty The degree of institutionalization and professionalization of predictive expertise The cultural impact of predictive practices and claims References Junctions: Science and politics of prediction Calculating the weather: Emerging cultures of prediction in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Europe Introduction The prehistory of modern weather prediction (1800–1880) Primers of modern weather forecasting (1880–1930) Conclusion: An emerging culture of numerical weather prediction Notes Acknowledgements References Which design for a weather predictor? Speculating on the future of electronic forecasting in post-war America Introduction Zworykin’s proposal of 1946 Two reactions: Bush and von Neumann A third reaction: Meteorologists Conclusion Notes References A new climate: Hubert H. Lamb and boundary work at the UK Meteorological Office Introduction A changing climate Hubert H. Lamb and the Royal Meteorological Society’s essay prize Lamb’s philosophical approach to climate Boundary work at the Meteorological Office Notes Acknowledgments References From heuristic to predictive: Making climate models intopolitical instruments Introduction Heuristic and predictive modeling Conclusion: Seeking political relevance References How to develop climate models? The “gamble” of improving climate model parameterizations Introduction Debates on the evolution of climate modeling The overhaul of a parameterization at the heart of the model Conceptions of climate models and laboratory cultures Conclusion: Multi-scale practices and cultures of modeling Notes Acknowledgement References Challenges and debates: Negotiating and using simulation knowledge The (re)emergence of regional climate: Mobile models, regional visions and the government of climate change Introduction The emergence of regional modeling Models on the move: RCMs as traveling code Translation, opacity, and political vision: PRECIS and RegCM in India Conclusion: Regional modeling and the government of climate change Notes References Bellwether, exceptionalism, and other tropes: Political coproduction of Arctic climate modeling Introduction Arctic climate change before models The Arctic in early global climate models The birth of “climate politics” The sea ice component Conclusion Note References From predictive to instructive: Using models for geoengineering Introduction The history of geoengineering Proposed methods The crux of experiments Geoengineering in a virtual world Demands on climate models Instructions: Policy advice and economic utilizability Conclusion References Validating models in the face of uncertainty: Geotechnical engineering and dike vulnerability in the Netherlands Introduction Piping Small, medium, and full-scale physical experiments Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in geotechnical research on piping From experimentation to data gathering Flood Control 2015 Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in data-intensive methods and the Flood Control 2015 project Conclusion: uncertainty as a source of innovation? Notes References Tracing uncertainty management through four IPCC Assessment Reports and beyond Introduction FAR and SAR revisited TAR and AR4 extending uncertainty management Bringing rigor to uncertainty management with frequentist and Bayesian production of PDFs Model-based uncertainty analysis beyond the IPCC Conclusions and suggestions for future research Notes References The future face of the Earth: The visual semantics of the future in the climate change imagery of the IPCC Visions of the future Futuristic image types With our backs to the future In the triptych of scenario curves Burning worlds, or the aesthetics of heat and alarm Blue is hope–space for opportunity and life paths Data images as associative spaces Notes References Index

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heymann m cultures prediction climate science 2017